Posted by Canadian Dream on May 14, 2010
I was recently sent a book to review called The Retiring Mind by Robert Delamontagne which was possibly one of the oddest books I’ve ever read. On one hand the book contained a incredibility accurate description of my personality type which was about 95% correct in just two pages and linked that to my possible issues with transitioning to retirement. On the other hand the book did go off towards the end into some serious ‘New Age’ style philosophy on our place in the universe.
The first part of the book deals with determining your personality type according to a system I have to admit I’ve never heard of before called Enneagram type. The author provides nice short descriptions of each personality type and also includes a little quiz to help you figure out which one is your primary one. The personality types have interesting names such as The Master, The Enchanter, The Star, The Drama Queen, The Solitary Mystic, The Closet Rebel, The Cruise Director, The Conquistador and The Harmonizer. I found found out I was The Solitary Mystic, which means I like to think deep at times and need some time alone on a regular basis (which is completely true). In addition to a description on each personality type the author also provided a activity map on what things you might enjoy doing in retirement and then provides a risk factor of experiencing emotional distress during the early to middle stages of retirement. My type apparently only moderate risk, while The Master would have a high risk. Overall I enjoyed this part of the book and found it useful.
Then in Chapter 4 the book changes course and introduces happiness realizations that trace back to the personality types. Unfortunately the realizations took on a heavy ‘New Age’ philosophy bend to them which to be honest the author realizes when he states we might be thinking: “What kind of new age bullshit is this?” Which at the time I was thinking nearly that statement. I had hoped that would mean the author would change course, but that never happened. Instead there was long discussions on concepts like “Everything is perfect as it is”, “Independent action is not possible” and “Everything is interconnected.” In short the book went downhill from there.
So overall I loved the first part of the book and disliked the second half of the book. The good news with the book was the overall things was very short at a lean 137 pages so even if you don’t like the second half of the book the read was quick.
Now onto the good part of this Friday: the book give-a-way! So please leave a comment on this post for a chance to win your own copy of The Retiring Mind. One entry per person. Please use a valid email address so I can contact you (please note I don’t share these addresses with anyone and only use it to contact the winner). Contest open to residents of the continental United States or Canada who leave a comment prior to May 21, 2010 at 8pm CST.
Posted by Canadian Dream on April 21, 2010
I’ve typically not read much on macroeconomics so it was a bit interesting to receive a review copy of Supercycles by Arun Motianey. Basically Arun discusses what has happened in history from economic point of view while reviewing previous developments in economic theory and then proposes a different take on it, called the Supercycle. From there he then lays out three possible outcomes for today’s economy: deflation, inflation or stagflation and some suggestions on how to invest in each case (he wisely doesn’t try to predict which will occur since it depends on what the central bank does).
I won’t get into too much detail on what the Supercycle is and how it works since that is most of the book, but I will give you a quick summary. First imagined there is a pipe from raw goods (commodities) that continues to middle manufacturing all the way to final consumption of a good. You would notice that the pipe crosses from country boarders as it snakes around the world. Well the Supercycle is really just a relative price imbalance that causes a cycle of boom and busts down this pipe. It would sort of look like a large snake eating a pig as it travels down the pipe. From there we get into all sorts of interesting implications on how that works with a gold standard versus floating exchange rates.
Perhaps the most interesting thing I learned from this book is how even those very smart folks at the central banks of the world don’t entirely know what they are doing. Their work is only as good as their model is and just about every model has its blind spots. Hence it is fairly easy for things to go to hell and get a crash that no one saw coming. Arun actual suggests economists need to start thinking a little bit more like engineers and focus on practical applications for their work. Being an engineer I ,of course, have to agree a bit.
Overall it was an interesting read for me, but I will caution that at points it got a bit technical. I’ve never had any formal education on economics and I was able to follow it the text fairly easily.
Now for the fun part of this post. The double give-a-way. First I’m giving away a copy of Supercycles. To enter just leave a comment on this post with a valid email address so I can contact you. One entry per person. Open to residents of Canada. Winner will be determined by random number generator on April 29, 2010 at 8 pm CST.
You can also win on a second contest being hosted by the publisher of Supercycles, McGraw Hill. To enter that contest go here and you need to enter your name and email address (just like a comment) and that draw closes on April 30, 2010. Best of luck in both draws.
Posted by Canadian Dream on January 29, 2010
Well, Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller, is likely one of the longer titles I’ve seen for a book, but thankful the text is no where as long a the title. Actually Jeff Rubin writing is a very readable style that makes the pages just fly by so I managed to read the full 265 pages of text in just a few days.
Overall the book focuses on one major driver in our lives: the cost of oil. Which when you start to think about it really touches just about everything in your life via one important fact: transportation of goods. So from your apple at lunch to your cheap clothes from China everything today gets touched by the price of oil.
Really cheap stuff from China is only possible by cheap oil since no one in their right mind would transport stuff half way around the world to process it and then ship it back unless there was money to be made doing it. Rubin does his best in this book to point out that is going to end sooner than later by oil prices going through the roof, like in the range of $225/barrel in the next decade or two (current price is around $70 to 80/barrel).
The problem is really two fold with those classic drivers of supply and demand. On the supply side he points out the obvious we are running out of the really easy and cheap oil. Otherwise no one would spend the money to extract oil from the oil sands. And it’s not just happening here but just about everywhere there is oil. Also the new finds are not nearly big enough to offset declining production. Then to top it off demand is going through the roof just about everywhere but especially China and India. But it’s not just there for example a lot of production in the middle east is actually being used internally at highly subsidized rates.
So the interesting implication to all of this will globalization will halt in its tracks and things will revert back to a more local production base. So yes there will be some down sides like no more cheap dollar store toys, but there will also be some positive parts especially with greenhouse gases. To illustrate his point I will quote:
In OECD countries, where consumers pay the full price for a barrel of oil, triple-digit prices will do more to reduce greenhouse gas emissions than a hundred Kyotol Protocals.
Rubin predicts we won’t solve emissions with accords but rather good old fashion trade. To illustrate the point I’ll provide another quote:
The most direct strategy for halting the seemingly endlesss growth in global carbon emissions, is not another round of Kyoto talks calling for voluntary cuts. What we need to do is to impose a carbon cost on emitters at home, then impose the same standards on imports.
So we will likely solve the problem with the US and Europe having either a carbon tax or cap and trade and then putting that same standard on imports. Sudden shipping distance will matter again and local will be cheaper driving a new round of local manufacturing for all countries.
Overall I rather likely the book. It’s very readable, brief and to the point. Also he doesn’t point out the world will end, rather it will just change again. Which when you think about it happens all the time.
