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	<title>Comments on: Do We Still Have a Housing Bubble?</title>
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		<title>By: Canadian Dream: Free at 45 &#187; Blog Archives &#187; Housing Bubbles and You</title>
		<link>http://blog.canadian-dream-free-at-45.com/2009/11/02/do-we-still-have-a-housing-bubble/comment-page-1/#comment-38025</link>
		<dc:creator>Canadian Dream: Free at 45 &#187; Blog Archives &#187; Housing Bubbles and You</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Dec 2009 14:43:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.canadian-dream-free-at-45.com/?p=1065#comment-38025</guid>
		<description>[...] Filed under [Debt]  Tags: [mortgage, saving]     I&#8217;ve previously discussed the concept of a potential housing bubble in Canada, but apparently that speculation is also going on in a few other places such as well such as China [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Filed under [Debt]  Tags: [mortgage, saving]     I&#8217;ve previously discussed the concept of a potential housing bubble in Canada, but apparently that speculation is also going on in a few other places such as well such as China [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Mama Zen</title>
		<link>http://blog.canadian-dream-free-at-45.com/2009/11/02/do-we-still-have-a-housing-bubble/comment-page-1/#comment-35076</link>
		<dc:creator>Mama Zen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 14:44:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.canadian-dream-free-at-45.com/?p=1065#comment-35076</guid>
		<description>Thanks for the link.  In fact in our case we bought a 250 000$ income property and had some money aside, but the bank told us that because we didn&#039;t have 25% for downpayment, ANYWAYS the CMHC will have to insure our mortgage, and we would pay the same fees with or without downpayment.  

So... the bank discouraged us to give a downpayment because obviously it was better for THEM to attach us 40 years. Now I see it because I am less naive...I learned something at least!!! But one thing is sure: I would never be able to do a job such like the bank counselor did with us, lying in our faces like that... yikes...

Next time I will give a downpayment, even if it&#039;s only 5% !</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks for the link.  In fact in our case we bought a 250 000$ income property and had some money aside, but the bank told us that because we didn&#8217;t have 25% for downpayment, ANYWAYS the CMHC will have to insure our mortgage, and we would pay the same fees with or without downpayment.  </p>
<p>So&#8230; the bank discouraged us to give a downpayment because obviously it was better for THEM to attach us 40 years. Now I see it because I am less naive&#8230;I learned something at least!!! But one thing is sure: I would never be able to do a job such like the bank counselor did with us, lying in our faces like that&#8230; yikes&#8230;</p>
<p>Next time I will give a downpayment, even if it&#8217;s only 5% !</p>
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		<title>By: Canadian Dream</title>
		<link>http://blog.canadian-dream-free-at-45.com/2009/11/02/do-we-still-have-a-housing-bubble/comment-page-1/#comment-35068</link>
		<dc:creator>Canadian Dream</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 12:09:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.canadian-dream-free-at-45.com/?p=1065#comment-35068</guid>
		<description>Well what do you know.  Even the major columnists over at the National Post have picked up on this story.

http://www.financialpost.com/opinion/columnists/story.html?id=e09feb7b-cab4-45d2-a052-47dcc381fea7

Thanks for the comments everyone.  I think the 5% down should be cash, not cash back.  You should be able to demonstrate some ability to save prior to getting a mortgage.  After all that will keep people from over paying so much on housing.  If you can&#039;t afford the $20,000 down payment you won&#039;t be buying that $400,000 house.

Tim</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well what do you know.  Even the major columnists over at the National Post have picked up on this story.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.financialpost.com/opinion/columnists/story.html?id=e09feb7b-cab4-45d2-a052-47dcc381fea7" rel="nofollow">http://www.financialpost.com/opinion/columnists/story.html?id=e09feb7b-cab4-45d2-a052-47dcc381fea7</a></p>
<p>Thanks for the comments everyone.  I think the 5% down should be cash, not cash back.  You should be able to demonstrate some ability to save prior to getting a mortgage.  After all that will keep people from over paying so much on housing.  If you can&#8217;t afford the $20,000 down payment you won&#8217;t be buying that $400,000 house.</p>
<p>Tim</p>
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		<title>By: Jon Snow</title>
		<link>http://blog.canadian-dream-free-at-45.com/2009/11/02/do-we-still-have-a-housing-bubble/comment-page-1/#comment-34977</link>
		<dc:creator>Jon Snow</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Nov 2009 23:38:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.canadian-dream-free-at-45.com/?p=1065#comment-34977</guid>
		<description>My wife and I vow never to have a mortgage again after we pay this one off. We have a GIC maturing in 2012 just before the current term on our mortagage expires, and with that GIC (which gets a juicy 5.25% in its final year) we will pay it off. Should we ever decide to ever upgrade from our condo to a townhouse we will make up the difference with cash we have saved... we&#039;re done with mortgages.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My wife and I vow never to have a mortgage again after we pay this one off. We have a GIC maturing in 2012 just before the current term on our mortagage expires, and with that GIC (which gets a juicy 5.25% in its final year) we will pay it off. Should we ever decide to ever upgrade from our condo to a townhouse we will make up the difference with cash we have saved&#8230; we&#8217;re done with mortgages.</p>
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		<title>By: Mama Zen</title>
		<link>http://blog.canadian-dream-free-at-45.com/2009/11/02/do-we-still-have-a-housing-bubble/comment-page-1/#comment-34969</link>
		<dc:creator>Mama Zen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Nov 2009 21:40:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.canadian-dream-free-at-45.com/?p=1065#comment-34969</guid>
		<description>Jordan:

«CMHC is a moral hazard.»

YOUR ARE JUST SO DAMN RIGHT!!!

I will pick up this and put it on my «never forget» list.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jordan:</p>
<p>«CMHC is a moral hazard.»</p>
<p>YOUR ARE JUST SO DAMN RIGHT!!!</p>
<p>I will pick up this and put it on my «never forget» list.</p>
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		<title>By: Mama Zen</title>
		<link>http://blog.canadian-dream-free-at-45.com/2009/11/02/do-we-still-have-a-housing-bubble/comment-page-1/#comment-34968</link>
		<dc:creator>Mama Zen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Nov 2009 21:35:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.canadian-dream-free-at-45.com/?p=1065#comment-34968</guid>
		<description>First, I appologize for all mistakes: I am not fully bilingal (my ML is French). I&#039;ll try to do my best :-)

I do own a 40 years, 0 downpayment mortgage.  And honestly, I do have a very hard time financially as I explain on my blog.

I didn&#039;t knew about what SCHL was doing with our mortgage.  Now I know that I didnt really understood what the bank «sold» us to be «the best mortgage we can have». Anyways.  What we are doing is that we opted for accelerated weekly payments.  Instead of paying monthly 1350$, we pay 380$ weekly.  

That means that over a year, we pay 19 760$ in mortgage instead of 16 200$ (3560$ more only on capital).  I would like this to be better, but right now it&#039;s the best we can do.  What it makes is that if our current interest rate doesn&#039;t move, we will pay our house in somewhat 26-27 years instead of 40 years.

Why did we chose that kind of mortgage?  Because houses prices are so high, it&#039;s almost impossible to put aside a significant downpayment.  What we did was we kept our money for downpayment to make necessary renos on the house: we added an income, so we hope when we will sell it that we get our money back and be able to put some cash on our next home. According to current market, we would be able to ask at least 60 000 more than what we paid when we bought this house. We plan to sell it within 18 months, and move to something smaller.

I just hope nothing crashes by this time...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>First, I appologize for all mistakes: I am not fully bilingal (my ML is French). I&#8217;ll try to do my best <img src='http://blog.canadian-dream-free-at-45.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p>I do own a 40 years, 0 downpayment mortgage.  And honestly, I do have a very hard time financially as I explain on my blog.</p>
<p>I didn&#8217;t knew about what SCHL was doing with our mortgage.  Now I know that I didnt really understood what the bank «sold» us to be «the best mortgage we can have». Anyways.  What we are doing is that we opted for accelerated weekly payments.  Instead of paying monthly 1350$, we pay 380$ weekly.  </p>
<p>That means that over a year, we pay 19 760$ in mortgage instead of 16 200$ (3560$ more only on capital).  I would like this to be better, but right now it&#8217;s the best we can do.  What it makes is that if our current interest rate doesn&#8217;t move, we will pay our house in somewhat 26-27 years instead of 40 years.</p>
<p>Why did we chose that kind of mortgage?  Because houses prices are so high, it&#8217;s almost impossible to put aside a significant downpayment.  What we did was we kept our money for downpayment to make necessary renos on the house: we added an income, so we hope when we will sell it that we get our money back and be able to put some cash on our next home. According to current market, we would be able to ask at least 60 000 more than what we paid when we bought this house. We plan to sell it within 18 months, and move to something smaller.</p>
<p>I just hope nothing crashes by this time&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Jordan</title>
		<link>http://blog.canadian-dream-free-at-45.com/2009/11/02/do-we-still-have-a-housing-bubble/comment-page-1/#comment-34967</link>
		<dc:creator>Jordan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Nov 2009 21:23:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.canadian-dream-free-at-45.com/?p=1065#comment-34967</guid>
		<description>I think there is definitely a huge bubble in housing, the only reason it didn&#039;t completely deflate is low interest rates.

CMHC is a moral hazard. What do the mortgage brokers, banks or other lenders care about the quality of their loans? The entire amount is back stopped by the government. They have nothing to lose, and consumers are pretty well unaware of the risks they take on because the CMHC premiums are just amortized right into the loan, they feel no financial consequence for their risk taking behavior.

Furthermore CMHC was setup to increase lending, but now is rather unnecessary, there are private lenders that offer loan insurance. If private providers want to back risky mortgages that&#039;s their own problem, GenWorth (GE) financial is feeling the pain of lowering their fees and creating new riskier lending programs like 40 year mortgage terms. 

CMHC has forgotten it&#039;s mandate to help Canadians afford housing. They didn&#039;t like losing market share to private insurers so they began competing with them. And why not lower insurance fees and offer insurance on riskier loans? They are backed by the government, they have nothing to lose!

At this rate CMHC will soon become larger then some of our national banks. CMHC is sucking up huge amounts of the stimulus package to prop up the housing bubble.

Housing prices are market driven, so by letting people take bigger loans with with less down and lower requirements all it does is add more buyers to the market, then prices go up for everyone. 

It&#039;s supply and demand, more buyers with more money = higher housing prices, and less affordability... exactly what CMHC was created to help fight.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think there is definitely a huge bubble in housing, the only reason it didn&#8217;t completely deflate is low interest rates.</p>
<p>CMHC is a moral hazard. What do the mortgage brokers, banks or other lenders care about the quality of their loans? The entire amount is back stopped by the government. They have nothing to lose, and consumers are pretty well unaware of the risks they take on because the CMHC premiums are just amortized right into the loan, they feel no financial consequence for their risk taking behavior.</p>
<p>Furthermore CMHC was setup to increase lending, but now is rather unnecessary, there are private lenders that offer loan insurance. If private providers want to back risky mortgages that&#8217;s their own problem, GenWorth (GE) financial is feeling the pain of lowering their fees and creating new riskier lending programs like 40 year mortgage terms. </p>
<p>CMHC has forgotten it&#8217;s mandate to help Canadians afford housing. They didn&#8217;t like losing market share to private insurers so they began competing with them. And why not lower insurance fees and offer insurance on riskier loans? They are backed by the government, they have nothing to lose!</p>
<p>At this rate CMHC will soon become larger then some of our national banks. CMHC is sucking up huge amounts of the stimulus package to prop up the housing bubble.</p>
<p>Housing prices are market driven, so by letting people take bigger loans with with less down and lower requirements all it does is add more buyers to the market, then prices go up for everyone. </p>
<p>It&#8217;s supply and demand, more buyers with more money = higher housing prices, and less affordability&#8230; exactly what CMHC was created to help fight.</p>
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		<title>By: Thicken My Wallet</title>
		<link>http://blog.canadian-dream-free-at-45.com/2009/11/02/do-we-still-have-a-housing-bubble/comment-page-1/#comment-34964</link>
		<dc:creator>Thicken My Wallet</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Nov 2009 20:28:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.canadian-dream-free-at-45.com/?p=1065#comment-34964</guid>
		<description>Well, the government is part of the problem and they have actually done something- they keep raising the CMHC insurance limits.In essense, open oil tank, find fire and pour repeatedly. 

We are cycling now in a consumption loop. The government&#039;s only response to a bubble collapse based on over-consumption is to encourage more consumption rather than stimulate output and industrial production growth.

A housing bubble, whether you believe it or not, is only a small part of a larger problem. We collectively refuse to make the scarfices necessary to re-orient our economy producing rather than consuming.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, the government is part of the problem and they have actually done something- they keep raising the CMHC insurance limits.In essense, open oil tank, find fire and pour repeatedly. </p>
<p>We are cycling now in a consumption loop. The government&#8217;s only response to a bubble collapse based on over-consumption is to encourage more consumption rather than stimulate output and industrial production growth.</p>
<p>A housing bubble, whether you believe it or not, is only a small part of a larger problem. We collectively refuse to make the scarfices necessary to re-orient our economy producing rather than consuming.</p>
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		<title>By: Potato</title>
		<link>http://blog.canadian-dream-free-at-45.com/2009/11/02/do-we-still-have-a-housing-bubble/comment-page-1/#comment-34960</link>
		<dc:creator>Potato</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:35:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.canadian-dream-free-at-45.com/?p=1065#comment-34960</guid>
		<description>Unfortunately the merry-go-round has to stop somewhere. I&#039;m in favour of putting the minimum down payment up another notch to 10%, on the theory that stopping the inflation of the bubble sooner is better than later. Of course, I&#039;m not seeking re-election.

At the very least increasing the CMHC insurance premium to more accurately reflect the risks would be nice. That could also solve the problem of having a country-wide policy for local issues. For instance, there is a much greater potential loss facing someone buying in Toronto or Vancouver right now than someone buying in Charlottetown, yet the mortgage insurance for all 3 would be 2.75% with the minimum down payment.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Unfortunately the merry-go-round has to stop somewhere. I&#8217;m in favour of putting the minimum down payment up another notch to 10%, on the theory that stopping the inflation of the bubble sooner is better than later. Of course, I&#8217;m not seeking re-election.</p>
<p>At the very least increasing the CMHC insurance premium to more accurately reflect the risks would be nice. That could also solve the problem of having a country-wide policy for local issues. For instance, there is a much greater potential loss facing someone buying in Toronto or Vancouver right now than someone buying in Charlottetown, yet the mortgage insurance for all 3 would be 2.75% with the minimum down payment.</p>
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		<title>By: Astin</title>
		<link>http://blog.canadian-dream-free-at-45.com/2009/11/02/do-we-still-have-a-housing-bubble/comment-page-1/#comment-34955</link>
		<dc:creator>Astin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Nov 2009 16:55:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.canadian-dream-free-at-45.com/?p=1065#comment-34955</guid>
		<description>I don&#039;t have a problem with long mortgage terms, as long as they stay single-generation (not the multi-generational 100-year mortgages in Japan).  If Someone wants to pay off their mortgage for the rest of their life and pay hundreds of thousands more in interest, that&#039;s their uninformed prerogative.  They become even less of an issue if you allow solid anniversary payments or other means of paying them off early with minimal penalty.

But I do have an issue with low down-payment allowances.  0% is ridiculous, as is 5% with 5% cash back (essentially 0%).  Forcing CMHC payments on anything under 20% is a good incentive to raise more of a down payment, but I think anything less than 10% should make a mortgage very difficult to get.  The down-payment is the best means of determining if you&#039;re ready to own a home - if you&#039;ve been able to save enough for a significant DP, then you&#039;ve shown at least some ability to live within your means.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t have a problem with long mortgage terms, as long as they stay single-generation (not the multi-generational 100-year mortgages in Japan).  If Someone wants to pay off their mortgage for the rest of their life and pay hundreds of thousands more in interest, that&#8217;s their uninformed prerogative.  They become even less of an issue if you allow solid anniversary payments or other means of paying them off early with minimal penalty.</p>
<p>But I do have an issue with low down-payment allowances.  0% is ridiculous, as is 5% with 5% cash back (essentially 0%).  Forcing CMHC payments on anything under 20% is a good incentive to raise more of a down payment, but I think anything less than 10% should make a mortgage very difficult to get.  The down-payment is the best means of determining if you&#8217;re ready to own a home &#8211; if you&#8217;ve been able to save enough for a significant DP, then you&#8217;ve shown at least some ability to live within your means.</p>
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